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Bayes in Medicine

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What is Bayesian Analysis and where did it come from?

Sometimes referred to as Bayesian Inference in Mathematics, Bayes’ is a method of statistical inference centered around population information, variables, and evidence to determine the probability of a particular event occurring. In essence, it is the mathematical calculation of how likely something is to happen based on the evidence. 

The creator of the method was Thomas Bayes –  an 18th century English statistician and Presbyterian minister. Although he did not publish his mathematical theories during his life, the publication of his work was post-humously carried out by another famous non-conformist, Richard Price. 

In his life, Thomas Bayes defended Sir Issac Newton’s calculus and explored the concept of probability with a passion, challenging the work of domestic and French contemporaries. 

If he was alive today, Bayes might not believe the impact of his work – and as a minister, he would surely frown over gambling applications using his theorem…

 

How does GIDEON use Bayes’?

Bayesian analysis requires data to be reliable and accurate, which is why GIDEON is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the formula and put millions of data points to use!

GIDEON applies this system to generate a list of likely Infectious Diseases based on the patient’s location, recent travel, and clinical findings. It might sound simple, but with over 200 signs and symptoms for over 360 diseases in 230+ countries and territories, the number of possibilities is vast. 

Regardless of extensive options, the GIDEON application is easy to follow, delivering instantaneous results.

Predicting outcomes in a clinical setting – or future developments of the Infectious Diseases landscape – are currently hot topics, and Bayesian Analysis, combined with a vast epidemiological data set, is ideally suited to help.

GIDEON is not alone in using this method for scientific and medical purposes, as it is also used in the Continuous Individualized Risk Index (CIRI) for identifying the risk of developing cancer over time, assessment of emergency room patients for heart attack, etc, etc.

Medicine aside, Bayes’ has many real-world applications, including computer software for machine learning, security systems, and gambling – and has even been used in a court of law by jurors assessing evidence and determining verdicts. 

 

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